A helping hand from numbers leads to objective opinions and confident decisions!!!

“What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger” -           Friedrich Nietzsche, 19 th Century German Philosopher IT Stocks are being hammered on almost daily basis. “ AI ” seems to have given serious “infection” to IT companies and doomsday predictions for most of the organizations abound. NIFTY IT index as on 21 Feb 2026 is down nearly 16% in a month and 19.84% in year. On the contrary, broader Nifty 500 index is up 2.04% in a month and by 13.37% in a year. One following a broad market indexing strategy using Nifty 500 index fund has been spared the sectoral downturn reflected in IT stocks. And that’s what diversification is all about. That said, is it time to take a contrarian call and buy some IT stocks? Or rather than go for individual stocks, introduce IT index fund to your portfolio and build a diversified holding of IT companies? The latter approach looks better to me as it takes the guesswork out of which company handles the AI ...

In the latest blog , I had shared (my) benchmarks for checking broader markets overvaluation or undervaluation status. Before I proceed to check the efficacy of these benchmarks, why do we really need such benchmarks? Here let me quote the timeless advise rendered by Benjamin Graham in his investment classic – “The Intelligent Investor”: We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a consequent inverse range of between 75% and 25% in bonds. There is an implication here that the standard division should be an equal one, or 50–50, between the two major investment mediums. According to tradition the sound reason for increasing the percentage in common stocks would be the appearance of the “bargain price” levels created in a protracted bear market. Conversely, sound procedure would call for reducing the common-stock component below 50% when in the judgment of the investor the mar...

Buy low, sell high is what everyone wants for investments (equities) where high ROI is being targeted. That gives one a shot at landing up with extraordinarily high returns. The catch – identifying high and low valuation situations. With consistency!!! High decibel pitch mostly highlight latest annual returns while long pull data is mostly mentioned on the sidelines. Relying on short term point to point data will mostly lead to wrong conclusions. My view: looking at decadal ROI’s and assessing them against a fixed rate low risk benchmark will give one a better shot at forming an opinion on whether prices are low, reasonable or high. And while one is at it, 3 period smoothening (averaging) will still give a better result as it tends to iron out significant outlier events making point to points returns even for long horizons go haywire.   Circling back to fixing benchmarks. As we assessing performance on decadal basis, I will consider 10 year Indian government bond yield as...

Remember my index plus approach blog? Never mind if you don’t recall. You can check it out here . This gist of index plus approach – trying to better the returns generated by broad market indexing by following some “active” investment options. Let’s check how this approach has done in the latest calendar year gone by (1 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026). And rather than looking at index returns, we will check out index fund returns from a particular fund house (Motilal Oswal) as that gives an idea of actual return what an investor would have realized. Here are some numbers: -           Nifty 500 Index fund: 6.57%, way below “general expectation of 12% to 15% returns   -           Nifty 50 Index fund:  10.89%. That’s more than 4% extra from Nifty 500 index fund. Underperformance by mid cap and small cap stocks pulled down Nifty 500 performance quite a bit   -    ...

Ever heard about the “Permanent Portfolio”? The genesis of this investment strategy lies in a book – “Fail Safe Investing – By Harry Browne”, written way back in 1999. This portfolio is quite unique and contrarian in the sense that it proposes one quarter of holdings each in investments such as gold (not jewellery), cash equivalents, long durations bonds and broader equity indexes. The premise is - "Every investment has its time in the sun - and its moment of shame". However, put together, such highly uncorrelated investments let one be one up on bad financial times of any kind. I admit this is the first time I have heard of such high gold and cash holding in any investment program. 5% to 10% is more like it. I would have mostly trashed this portfolio as some marketing gimmick if I had not come across excellent analysis done in this blog . While the said blog is in UK context, I would tend to believe same would be more or less true in Indian context too. Maybe better as our ...

First question: How much do I have? Second question: How much of it is liquid which I can move around quickly? Third question: Where all, and how much do I want to put my money? Fourth question: Does my budget have a provision for any urgent requirement to ensure I don’t need to tweak my plan midway? Final Question: What is the plan for pulling out some money from an investment which has done exceedingly well against established benchmarks? 

Annualized returns as on 30 Sep 2025 Asset Class 1 (Gold): -           One year: 52%. Outstanding performance by Gold -           10 year: 16.12% Asset Class 2 (Equities, basis Nifty 500 TRI ): -           One year: Negative 4.94%. Abysmal performance by equities in past 1 year, more so when compared to gold returns -           10 year: 14.35%. Now it does not look that bad even if you bring gold in perspective However, it is quite clear gold trumped equites both in long and short horizons. Good many people will be inclined to go for gold investments going forward, now that data proves gold trumps equities even in long horizon But hang on. What was the situation on 30 Sep 2024, and for good measure on 30 Sep 2023. Here we go… Annualized returns as on 30 Sep 2024 Asset Class 1 (Gold): - ...

Momentum investing: Deploy money in the “trend”, hope the “trend” to keep up, and keep reaping the rewards!!! Current example – precious metals like gold and silver have delivered super returns in past one year. Those BUYING GOLD & SILVER now are following a momentum strategy. They expect the good times for gold and silver to continue!!! Contrarian Investing: You are expecting the trend to reverse. Say I have good amount of investment in gold. I feel the price has run it’s course and now buying into gold or even not selling some is a high risk as prices may pull back (trend reversal). On the contrary, equity markets have not done well in recent past. Nifty 500 index return for 1 year ending 30 Sep 2025 is NEGATIVE 5.28%. If I decide to SELL GOLD and BUY NIFTY 500 INDEX, I am being a contrarian. Both have pros and cons. Personally, I prefer contrarian play. Cons of Momentum play: the (up)trend may stop once you put money on the line. Worse, it may reverse and you will now star...

Whether value of your primary home or the car you drive be counted in your asset inventory  ? Or in Indian context, the value of jewellery you possess? For a long time, I was on the other side of the fence – any consumption stuff should not be considered in asset inventory working. Now, my views have changed – the stuff which give you and your family “status” and let the world know that you have “arrived” are definitely worthy of being counted in your net worth. Ok, don’t roger me for being so subjective despite of running a blog obsessed with numbers. But even in numbers context, anything which can be liquidated for money maybe be considered in “Asset Inventory”, or more simply wealth status. I say “can” and not “should” because for consumption stuff, which serves only a particular need, it is upto an individual of what he / she plans to do with the money realised after liquidating the stuff. For example, when I scrapped my 15 plus year old motorcycle and got nearly 10% of pur...

Should an 80 year old   or near about person who has come about in possession of large chunk of money through some source, let’s say property sale consider deploying a large chunk of money in listed equity investments? General opinion: No, absolutely no. Too risky at this advanced age!!! Even if one is really inclined to invest in equities, should be in lowly amounts. Somewhere I read – equity allocation should follow 100 minus current age rule. If you are 80, equity allocation basis overall assets should be 20%. Never mind doing up asset inventory and asset allocation check on overall capital basis is rarely focused on. Well, I don’t subscribe to this “general opinion”. In personal finance, “personal” comes before “finance” and any generic statement does not take into account investor specific financial situation. What if an 80 year old: -           Has assured income which is at least 1.25 times his / her regular expenses? To...

You don’t know how well your money is doing until you have a clear picture where all your money is. That is where the role of periodically working out asset inventory comes into play. While it may appear to be a chore initially (and it is), if one perseveres, the results may be the best guide a very successful financial situation. The best part – you don’t need any fancy apps or other tools to go about it. Simple excel sheet or even a diary if you prefer writing can do the job near perfectly. I am deliberately not putting up any sample asset inventory format. That is left to each individual. The format you go by can be a simple one, with just the asset type & associated number against it. Or an advanced one where you also plug in realistic expected return. Maybe even a super advanced one (if I can say that), where you adjust the weighted average portfolio returns with expected inflation to get an idea how well your investments are keeping up with purchasing power capacity. Wh...

With the tax incentives for savings gone if one opts for new tax regime, going for NPS (National Pension Scheme) investments on voluntary basis to the tune of INR 50,000/- per annum or even higher will be out of consideration for many. Or should it be? While the tax savings during accumulation phase are gone for those who go for new tax regime, key attraction of tax benefits on withdrawal still remain. It has been sometime now that equity investments have become taxable beyond certain minimum threshold of capital gains. However, NPS still offers the opportunity of deploying sizable annual contribution in equity investments and get large part of accumulated corpus (60%) tax free after 60 years of age. This, plus the option of continuing NPS contribution till 75 years of age is what made me subscribe to NPS scheme. The flexibility offered by extending NPS subscription till advanced age of 75 while still having a chance to exit whenever you want to is excellent.   Coming to annuit...

Don’t worry, this post is not about why market timing is not possible, and should not be indulged into. In fact, I feel a bit of it should be done as it gives a feeling that one is “doing something” and is “in control”. We will agree all humans love the feeling of being “in control”. Nor it is about detailed number work on how much impact a successful market timing can have on one’s portfolio / net worth. The works have already been done already here  in detail and we will rely on it for good measure.     First – let me quote from above article on the quantum of impact perfect market timing may have on portfolios:     “The evidence, based on more than 160,000 daily returns from 15 international equity markets, is clear: Outliers have a massive impact on long-term performance. On average across all 15 markets: -         missing the best 10 days resulted in portfolios 50.8% less valuable than a passive investment...

10 year CAGR for the period 1 April 2010 – 31 March 2020: 6.19%. Covid 19 made equity market tumble and we had to contend with a lowly equity market returns. We can safely say 10 years is long enough investment horizon. Investment return of this quantum will easily qualify as worst case scenario. And it was. If we consider only point to point figure. Here’s what unique to listed equity investing: it is NOT like buying property where you lock in “one” price at a point in time. Then why look at worst case (or even best or average case) on point to point basis? My opinion – to get an idea of real worst case scenario, looking at data on 3 year moving average basis makes better sense. Let’s see what numbers say. Point to point returns of 10 year period ending: -           31 March 2018:                          ...

Risk in short term say upto a year of investment horizon – losing a large part of your capital Risk in medium term, say investment horizon of 5 years: not matching up to fixed rate return (don’t forget to adjust for taxes) you would have realized had you invested in such instruments (say bank deposits) instead of equities. Risk in long term, say a decade or more: Here’s where things get complicated. I can think of single most important risk to long term equity investing - the geography you are investing in doesn’t see decent economic growth on per capita basis or in worst case - becomes a failed state . Equity markets mostly follow economic growth in the long term and they may not deliver in such situations. The first two “risks” are difficult to predict but easy to manage . The last one, which in my opinion is the “real risk” in equity investing may actually be easy to predict as there will be good many warning signs before such situation manifests. However, management of such a...

Uncertain times are upon us. There is a shadow of war post killing of tourists in Pahalgam. So far, equity markets have not shown any signs of cracking up despite of high expectations of armed conflict with our wayward neighbour. Is it the calm before the storm as far as equity markets are concerned? It is anybody’s guess that if a protracted war does happen, economy will take a hit in near term, which in turn will impact our daily lives, including equity markets. When and how this will happen is again anybody’s guess. Should you take a relook at your equity investments in such a scenario? Nothing wrong in being a little conservative in such times. Here’s what I think can be considered:     -           Scenario I: You have designated INR 100 for equity investments and are fully invested. While you do have money in non equity investments, in case of equity market downturn, YOU WILL NOT PULL MONEY OUT OF SUCH INVESTMENTS AND DEP...

No, this blog is not about how a SIP  running for long periods (10 years?) lets one weather the market cycles and average your buying cost. Enough has been said about it and that remains. By the way, there’s no standard definition of “LONG PERIOD” as such. It’s left open to investing entity!!! This blog is more towards accumulating capital, as (HIGH) returns really matter only when they are earned on reasonable amount of capital. Even extraordinarily high returns on piddling capital (savings) don’t amount to much in absolute numbers. And it takes time to build up capital if you are doing it gradually, even after taking impact of compounding. Let the numbers come to our help. But first, we need to establish some benchmark to evaluate how long should one run a SIP, alongwith a projected rate of return. Here’s a simple benchmark for SIP duration – my investment should double at the end of SIP period for a particular rate of return. I will consider that duration as “LONG TERM”. ...

Long ago, here  I posted how I would go about investing a sizable amount in equity index funds. I assumed in this blog that for next 5 years, equity markets will enter their worst phase and deliver poor returns – in fact negative returns of 10% annualized for next 5 years. Such a bad phase would result in equity fund corpus down by nearly 41% in absolute terms. Have the equity markets done that bad historically? Not at all. The worst case 5 year equity markets performance, basis Nifty 500 Index TRI has been in covid times @ minus 1.4% annualized for March 2015 – March 2020 period. Essentially, our assumption of minus 10% annualized ROI for 5 years was way too bad than actual worse case seen. Let us redo the numbers basis some realistic data: -           Actual worst case 5 year CAGR seen:   Minus 1.4% -           Assuming things can go even worse than this sometime in future, we c...